I started digging around to see what we could learn about Patrick Mahomes and start to determine what a possible ceiling for him would be. I actually forgot that when he was a Sophomore he actually played Safety for Whitehouse and didn't start at QB till he was a junior.
Based off his statistics in high school. I think you can start to project what he'll look like for Tech this fall.
maxpreps.com/athlete/patrick-mahomes/z_9A5_TxEeKZ5AAmVebBJg/gendersport/football-stats.htm
Junior Year - 56.7% completion percentage, 3839 Yards, 46 TDs/9 INTs, 9.2 yards/attempt, 258 yards rushing/6 TDs
Senior Year - 58% completion percentage, 4619 Yards, 50 TDs/6 INTs, 9.3 yards/attempt, 940 yards rushing/15 TDs
College Freshman Year - 57% completion percentage, 1547 Yards, 16 TDs/4 INTs, 8.3 yards/attempt, 104 yards rushing
I think a 60% completion percentage would be marked improvement based on his track record. Also, the guy has been historically a very accurate passer and protects the ball well. If we do his percentages last year and put it on a 4 game track record (let's call K-State, TCU, Okie Lite, and UT 1 game all together). We're looking at 386.75 yards/game, 4641 total yards, 48 TDs to 12 INTs (that TD number will drop most likely), and about 300 yards rushing. Now, that's probably a pretty inflated number cause that means every 4 games Mahomes will drop a 660 yard game. Although, you get the point.
Now, if we take a look at Davis Webb, you can actually see that his turnover problems and accuracy have ALSO held strong over the years.
maxpreps.com/athlete/davis-webb/BSDo7fTuEeKZ5AAmVebBJg/gendersport/football-stats.htm
High School Senior - 61% completion percentage, 2722 yards, 23 TDs/7 INTs, 7.8 yards/attempt, 572 yards rushing/12 TDs. 12 games.
College Freshman - 61% completion percentage, 2539 yards, 20 TDs/9 INTs, 7.53 yards/attempt...forget rushing. 8 games.
College Sophomore - 63% completion percentage, 2718 yards, 24 TDs/13 INTs, 7.36...forget rushing. 8 Games.
As a collegiate player, Davis Webb has averaged 3,504 yards/season, 29 TDs/15 INTs, 7.45 yards/attempt on a 12 game platform. If you compare these numbers to his high school stats, he's definitely throwing for more yards, his INT percentage has increased by 50%, and his yards/attempt numbers are roughly the same. Basically, Davis Webb's ceiling is to probably around 3,600 yards/season, 25 TDs, 8 INTs, and a 7.6 yards/attempt number.
I know that we're using 2 seasons of college ball for Davis Webb, compared to 1/3rd of a Patrick Mahomes season, although, the predictors say that Davis Webb has probably hit his ceiling, meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes has historically had a high yards/attempt number, big TD numbers, and not many INTs. I'm saying that Mahomes doing 4000 yards, 40 TDs, 300 rushing yards, and roughly 9-10 INTs is not unreasonable at all and it's actually possible that we can predict it.
