As you look across the Big XII this off-season, you'll find a lot of question marks surrounding multiple quarterbacks. I don't think I can remember a time when there were so few "established" quarterbacks in our conference. With the exception of TCU's Trevone Boykin, you won't find a whole lot of answers.
Every other week, I see articles ranking each quarterback, but nothing that really compares their statistics. So, I decided give it a go.
For this article we'll be comparing Pat Mahomes, Mason Rudolph, Seth Russell, Skyler Howard, Baker Mayfield, and for good measure, Davis Webb. First we'll compare them as "Pure Passers." Second, we'll add their passing stats and rushing stats into a category I call "Real" statistics. Finally, we'll take a look at the competition they have faced.
Before I get too far ahead of myself, I want to clarify one thing. I think most fans have an unrealistic belief about how much a quarterback can improve during their collegiate career. About two years ago, Football Study Hall published extensive research regarding quarterbacks between 2003 and 2012. They researched over 900 quarterback seasons. According to the numbers they presented, most quarterbacks have pretty consistent statistics across their career. So, if you have a quarterback that has a low completion percentage as a freshman, say 50%. There is a very low probability that QB will have a 75% completion rate by their senior year. In fact, making it to 60% might be a stretch. On average, QB's seem to improve by only 2 to 4%. So, there is typically improvement, just not dramatic improvement. That isn't to say that you can't find a few examples, but if you are expecting Davis Webb to become Sam Bradford, you shouldn't hold your breath. Let's take a look at the QB averages between 2003 and 2012:
|
Class |
Count |
Comp% |
Y/Att |
TD/Att |
INT/Att |
Rating |
|
FR |
82 |
59.2% |
7.0 |
4.8% |
3.2% |
127.7 |
|
SO |
222 |
60.1% |
7.2 |
5.1% |
2.9% |
131.9 |
|
JR |
298 |
60.6% |
7.4 |
5.2% |
2.8% |
134.4 |
|
SR |
301 |
61.5% |
7.5 |
5.6% |
2.7% |
137.4 |
|
Change Over Time: |
+2.3% |
+0.5 |
+0.8% |
-0.5% |
+9.7 |
|
"Pure Passers"
Okay, so now we're ready to start comparing. We'll start with the obvious, QB Ratings.
|
Players |
Career QB Rating |
|
Seth Russell |
160.7 |
|
Mason Rudolph |
154.0 |
|
Patrick Mahomes |
151.2 |
|
Davis Webb |
138.8 |
|
Skyler Howard |
138.2 |
|
Baker Mayfield |
127.7 |
When analyzing QB ratings, you can always get a better feel for a quarterback's performance by removing the extremes. This way you can get a better feel for the average. Numbers can often be skewed by one great performance, especially when you have young quarterbacks that don't have a long history of statistics to analyze. So, we'll take away each quarterback's best game:
|
Players |
QB Rating without Best Game |
|
Mason Rudolph (without Washington Game) |
142.89 |
|
Patrick Mahomes (without Baylor Game) |
140.90 |
|
Davis Webb (without Arizona State Game) |
136.05 |
|
Seth Russell (without Northwestern State Game) |
132.44 |
|
Skyler Howard (without Kansas State Game) |
130.90 |
|
Baker Mayfield (without Stephen F. Austin Game) |
120.11 |
You will notice that Davis Webb's performance does not significantly change. This is due to the fact that Webb has a much larger sample size to analyze, so removing one game will not create a dramatic change in his statistics. The biggest change is Seth Russell. His QB Rating drops by 28 points. Rudolph and Mahomes sit at the top, separated by 1.99.
Now, let's take away their worst game:
|
Players |
QB Rating without Worst Game |
|
Seth Russell (without Texas Tech Game) |
168.93 |
|
Mason Rudolph (without Oklahoma Game) |
168.47 |
|
Patrick Mahomes (without Texas Game) |
158.3 |
|
Skyler Howard (without Texas A&M Game) |
143.19 |
|
Davis Webb (without Kansas State (‘14) Game) |
141.54 |
|
Baker Mayfield (without TCU Game) |
132.54 |
Between the 3 graphs. It is pretty evident that the Rudolph, Mahomes, and Russell lead the way. Obviously these numbers have various impacting factors, like level of competition, but we'll get to that in just a few minutes. Before we analyze the competition. Let's breakdown the QB ratings into individual metrics. Of course, when we look at football statistics, it is important that we look at "per attempt" averages, and not just total yardage or touchdowns. 5000 yards looks great, but when it took 5000 attempts to get there, it isn't that impressive. First, let's look at completion percentage:
|
Players |
Comp % |
|
Baker Mayfield |
64.1% |
|
Davis Webb |
61.9% |
|
Seth Russell |
57.8% |
|
Mason Rudolph |
57.0% |
|
Patrick Mahomes |
56.8% |
|
Skyler Howard |
50.9% |
Yards per Attempt:
|
Players |
YPA |
|
Mason Rudolph |
9.92 |
|
Seth Russell |
9.62 |
|
Patrick Mahomes |
8.36 |
|
Skyler Howard |
7.54 |
|
Davis Webb |
7.45 |
|
Baker Mayfield |
6.81 |
Touchdown Percentage (TDs/Attempts):
|
Players |
TD/Att |
|
Patrick Mahomes |
8.65% |
|
Seth Russell |
8.59% |
|
Skyler Howard |
7.27% |
|
Mason Rudolph |
6.98% |
|
Davis Webb |
6.23% |
|
Baker Mayfield |
3.53% |
Interception Percentage (INTs/Attempts):
|
Players |
INTs/Att |
|
Skyler Howard |
0% |
|
Patrick Mahomes |
2.16% |
|
Baker Mayfield |
2.65% |
|
Davis Webb |
3.12% |
|
Seth Russell |
3.13% |
|
Mason Rudolph |
4.65% |
Now we'll average their rankings in all 4 categories:
|
Players |
Comp % |
YPA |
TD/Att |
INT/Att |
Average Rank |
|
Patrick Mahomes |
5 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2.75 |
|
Seth Russell |
3 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
3.00 |
|
Skyler Howard |
6 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
3.50 |
|
Mason Rudolph |
4 |
1 |
4 |
6 |
3.75 |
|
Davis Webb |
2 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
4.00 |
|
Baker Mayfield |
1 |
6 |
6 |
3 |
4.00 |
Interesting enough, Mahomes is at the front. Looking at these metrics individually really gives us a good understanding of each quarterback's strengths and weaknesses. Something we'll go into detail about toward the end of the article, but right now we are still missing some vital information when it comes to analysis, rushing statistics.
"REAL" Statistics
Over the past 8 years, football has seen an explosion of dual-threat QBs. All we need look at are some of the most recent Heisman trophy winners: Tim Tebow, Cam Newton, Robert Griffin, Johnny Manziel, and Marcus Mariota. I think statistics for quarterbacks are often misleading. Too often we look at them as just "passers" and just "rushers." But what if we combine all their statistics? That's why I devised the concept of "Real" statistics. So we can analyze the whole picture. Here is a breakdown of the formulas I use:
Real Attempts = Passing Attempts + Rushing Attempts
Real Yardage = Passing Yardage + Rushing Yardage
Real Yards per Attempt = Real Yardage / Real Attempts
Real Touchdown Percentage = (Passing Touchdowns + Rushing Touchdowns) / Real Attempts
Real Turnover Percentage = (Interceptions + Fumbles) / Real Attempts
You get the picture. It isn't a difficult concept to master or understand. We'll start our comparison with Real Yards per Attempt:
|
Players |
Real YPA |
|
Seth Russell |
8.49 |
|
Mason Rudolph |
8.20 |
|
Skyler Howard |
7.34 |
|
Patrick Mahomes |
7.15 |
|
Davis Webb |
7.03 |
|
Baker Mayfield |
5.85 |
Real Touchdown Percentage:
|
Players |
Real TD % |
|
Seth Russell |
9.24% |
|
Patrick Mahomes |
6.93% |
|
Skyler Howard |
6.06% |
|
Davis Webb |
6.02% |
|
Mason Rudolph |
6.00% |
|
Baker Mayfield |
3.50% |
Real Turnover Percentage:
|
Players |
Real TO % |
|
Skyler Howard |
0.76% |
|
Seth Russell |
2.17% |
|
Patrick Mahomes |
2.60% |
|
Baker Mayfield |
2.80% |
|
Davis Webb |
3.48% |
|
Mason Rudolph |
5.00% |
This next graph is a breakdown of fumbles. I included only "Fumbles Lost" in the numbers for "Real Turnover Percentage," nevertheless, I think looking at fumbles as a whole is interesting.
|
Players |
Fumbles Lost |
Fumbles Recovered |
Total Fumbles |
|
Skyler Howard |
1 |
0 |
1 |
|
Mason Rudolph |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
Patrick Mahomes |
2 |
1 |
3 |
|
Baker Mayfield |
3 |
3 |
6 |
|
Seth Russell |
0 |
6 |
6 |
|
Davis Webb |
4 |
5 |
9 |
Seth Russell is quick on his feet, but he has also experienced what some call "statistical good luck." Fumbling the ball 6 times in 184 Real Attempts is sloppy. Sooner or later he is going to start losing those fumbles.
Now, let's average each quarterback's rank in these 3 categories of Real statistics:
|
Players |
Real YPA |
Real TD% |
Real TO% |
Average Rank |
|
Seth Russell |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1.33 |
|
Skyler Howard |
3 |
3 |
1 |
2.33 |
|
Patrick Mahomes |
4 |
2 |
3 |
2.75 |
|
Mason Rudolph |
2 |
5 |
6 |
4.33 |
|
Davis Webb |
5 |
4 |
5 |
4.67 |
|
Baker Mayfield |
6 |
6 |
4 |
5.33 |
When you combine rushing and passing statistics you get a much better understanding of the whole picture. Every attempt matters. Whether the quarterback takes off scrambling or throws a deep ball, the only thing that matters is getting a touchdown or at very least a first down.
Even with these new stats, we are lacking nearly 50% of the complete picture. Any quarterback can look amazing against the worst teams in the country, so let's level the playing field.
Level of Competition
In this section we'll take a very detailed look at the level of competition that each quarterback has faced. A good place to start would be to analyze QB Ratings against "Power-5" teams only:
|
Players |
QB Rating vs. Power-5 Teams |
|
Mason Rudolph |
154 |
|
Patrick Mahomes |
151.2 |
|
Skyler Howard |
138.2 |
|
Davis Webb |
137.6 |
|
Baker Mayfield |
112.6 |
|
Seth Russell |
87.7 |
Rudolph, Mahomes, and Howard are the only 3 quarterbacks that have faced just Power-5 teams, so their numbers remain steady. Davis Webb has the most experience. Webb has played in 18 games, so he has seen the widest array of competition and his rating is only slightly changed. On the other hand, Mayfield and Russell show a significant decline in performance. Russell's Heisman-like stats are brought into perspective. His two biggest games came against some of the worst defenses in college football (Northwestern State and SMU). Northwestern State's defense ranked 79th among FCS defenses and gave up an average of 411 yards per game. Among FBS schools, SMU ranked 122nd in total defense and gave up almost 500 yards per game.
Let's break down the competition once more. Now, I could have taken the total defense ranking of each team that a player has faced and merely averaged them. But that wouldn't be fair to the players. If they only made 1 attempt against SMU and 50 attempts against TCU, it would not be fair to take the average of the two defenses. Instead, we'll take each quarterback's "Real" attempts against each team and turn that into a percentage of their total "Real" attempts. Then we'll multiple that percentage times the each team's defensive ranking. Finally, we'll add up all the pieces and that should give us the true average defense that each QB has faced.
Before you see the numbers, one last question must be answered. How do you rank FCS and FBS defenses together? You could stack the two lists. For example, I could rank the number 1 FCS defense as 129th overall, but that wouldn't be fair to FCS teams. We could combine them all and rank them according to "yards given up per game." However, that wouldn't be fair to FBS teams, as they have faced better teams all season. In this case, we are going to have to come up with a semi-arbitrary ranking system. We'll place the number 1 FCS defense at 65th overall. That means half of all FBS teams have a better defense than the top FCS defense. From 65th back, we'll call it a tie at each postition. That would mean Bethune-Cookman (FCS) and UCLA (FBS) would share the 65th ranking. Honestly, I think the FCS teams are given way too much credit in this system, but it is much fairer than automatically ranking all FCS teams behind all FBS teams.
All that said, here is the average "Total Defense" ranking that each quarterback has played:
|
Players |
Average "Total Defense" Ranking of Competition |
|
Mason Rudolph |
60.1 |
|
Baker Mayfield |
61.7 |
|
Patrick Mahomes |
63.3 |
|
Davis Webb |
69.4 |
|
Skyler Howard |
100.3 |
|
Seth Russell |
108.8 |
We'll also take a look at the combined win-loss record of teams each QB has played:
|
Players |
Combined Win-Loss of Competition |
Combined Competition's Win Percentage |
|
Mason Rudolph |
27-13 |
67.5% |
|
Patrick Mahomes |
55-35 |
61.1% |
|
Davis Webb |
122-105 |
53.7% |
|
Baker Mayfield |
48-51 |
48.5% |
|
Skyler Howard |
22-28 |
44% |
|
Seth Russell |
74-108 |
40.7% |
Finally, we have the full picture. Russell and Howard have played extremely weak competition.
Let's rank'em!
1. Tie (Mason Rudolph and Patrick Mahomes)
I go back and forth on this one, both quarterbacks have faced tough competition, and both have performed remarkably well.
Patrick Mahomes
PROs
Of all the quarterbacks, Mahomes appears to be the most, well-rounded. His ability to throw the long ball is impressive. He has a very high touchdown percentage and low turnover percentage. In my personal opinion, TD/INT Ratio makes a great quarterback.
CONs
Mahomes' weakness is completion percentage, not the worst among the 6 quarterbacks, but slightly below the national average.
Mason Rudolph
PROs
Rudolph's yards per attempt show his incredible ability to force the ball downfield. This single statistic ties him for first place. If his receivers can consistently get behind the coverage, OK State will have a great year.
CONs
Nevertheless, his turnover percentage is a problem. 5% is well below the national average for QBs. Teams that are good at creating turnovers will make him pay the price. Every OK State fan should be worried about this statistic. Furthermore, Rudolph is in no way a dual-threat quarterback. His longest rush is 7 yards. This season he has amassed -33 rushing yards. Rudolph will need a solid offensive line to keep him safe.
3. Skyler Howard
PROs
Skyler Howard takes third place for one reason and one reason only, turnover percentage. He hasn't faced the best competition, but his ability to make good decisions with the ball is on par with the best in the nation. If he can maintain a low turnover percentage, Howard will keep West Virginia competitive. Howard is also quick on his feet. If opposing teams get too caught up in coverage, he'll make them pay on the ground. He is not a run first QB, but when he runs, it can be deadly. Howard averaged 6.4 yards per rushing attempt.
CONs
Howard's 50.9% completion percentage is bordering on amateur and his yards per attempt don't do enough to make-up the difference.
4. Seth Russell
PROs
Seth Russell is great on his feet. He averaged 5.9 yards per rushing attempt. He has a long of 40 yards. Opposing defenses need to SPY him, especially in the Red Zone. Russell has 6 rushing TDs.
CONs
His passing numbers look impressive, but the sad truth for Baylor fans is that Russell has played very weak defenses. His 87.7 QB rating against Power 5 teams is horrid. His stats against Power 5 teams, 26 of 55 for 273 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. That's 4.96 Yards per attempt. Furthermore, Russell's 6 fumbles (although all recovered), is sloppy. Eventually 1 or 2 of those fumbles will bounce the wrong way. These stats are disturbing. I would place Russell near the bottom, but Art Briles always seems to make the best of any situation.
5. Davis Webb
PROs
Webb has experience and his touchdown percentage is above the national average. I don't ever expect Graham Harrell numbers out of Webb, but a senior Davis Webb could be deadly. We already noted that most QBs don't have dramatic improvement over their career, but Webb could benefit from those slight improvements.
CONs
Turnovers. Period. Webb has 9 fumbles (4 lost) and 22 interceptions. His overall turnover percentage is 3.48%, that's below the national average, even for freshmen.
6. Baker Mayfield
PROs
Baker Mayfield ranked last in almost every comparison, with the lone exception of completion percentage. His competition was average, so I wouldn't expect a major drop off in performance.
CONs
For Oklahoma to be successful this season, they need to lean on their running game. If they lean on Mayfield, Lincoln Riley will need to work some miracles. I'm not saying it isn't possible for Mayfield to be successful, but statistics say that is highly unlikely.