The winds of change are sweeping through West Texas and with them come the reality that the Red Raider football program has tumbled far from the heights of the late 90's and early 00's glory. In the face of an always unstable Big 12 Conference, this bleak reality begs the question - should Tech continue to compete in a Power Five conference or seek a home in a non Power Five conference that offers a more competitive chance?
Texas Tech has a winning percentage of just 36% in conference play over the past four years, winning only 13 conference games in the Kingsbury era. In fact, Tech has only managed multiple victories over three conference opponents in that same time span, Iowa State, Kansas, and TCU. The Red Raiders have managed only one conference win in four years over in-state rivals Baylor and Texas, respectively and one respective win over out of state rivals West Virginia and Kansas State. Tech has yet to beat Oklahoma or Oklahoma State in the Kingsbury era.The results don't lie; Texas Tech is a bottom third team in the conference under Kingsbury.
There are benefits to being a member of a Power Five conference. The significant economic gains afforded to conference members through pooled TV and bowl game revenues must be considered. However, at what point does the brand risk associated with a losing conference program out weigh the economic potential of being a participant in a Power Five conference, even if you are a perennial loser? Power Five conferences are set to rake in an estimated $50 million per conference in pooled revenue under the new bowl playoff agreement. This is a significant amount in contrast to the $18 million Group of Five conferences receive from the same pool. However, given the recent trend of Texas Tech losing at least five conference games each year, the absence of individual bowl revenue has to be taken into consideration. If Tech is able to meet the minimum standard for bowl eligibility and land in low middle to low tier bowl the payout would be anywhere from $1.5 - $3 million. However, competitive non Power Five conference teams have been rewarded in recent years and have qualified for premier bowls that payout anywhere from $4 - $6 million. Regardless of this, Tech would still be more profitable competing in a Power Five conference with access to TV and pooled bowl revenues.
Bottomline, it pays to be a winner in a Power Five conference. It pays to be a middle of the road team in a Power Five conference - and as much as it is painful to watch, it also pays to be a bottom third team in a Power Five conference.
Kingsbury will now go into his fifth season holding a conference record of only 13 - 23 and having been dominated by in state and conference rivals. But the program is profitable, for now.
