1. Point Margin Less Than 14
Since 2005, Texas Tech has beat their FCS opponents by an average of 42.8 points. With the exception of last year's 7 point debacle against Central Arkansas. The next closest margin of victory was 25 points.
Most of my peers will tell you not to worry about the final score on Saturday. I'm going to take a slightly contrarian approach. If Texas Tech wins by 14 points or less, then you should worry.
Now, listen very carefully. The next sentence is very important. Past the 14 point threshold, there is no correlation between point margin and season win-loss records. If Tech wins by 15 or by 70, it makes no difference. Believe me, I ran the numbers.
I researched 15 power 5 teams and over 180 football seasons stretching from 2002 to 2014. I only found 5 instances where a power 5 team ended their season above .500 if they loss to their FCS opponent or won by less than 14 points (3 of those instances were at Kansas State). On the other hand, the inverse relationship is NOT true. Winning by 15 points or more does not guarantee a winning season.
To summarize: Win by 14 points or less, and there is a strong chance Tech will finish at or below .500. Win by 15 points or more, and there is no correlation.
2. Giving Up Over 200 Rushing Yards
Last year, Texas Tech ranked 124th in rush defense among FBS schools. On Saturday, we should get a decent idea about how much the defense has improved. The stat to look for here is total rushing yards allowed.
In preparation for this article, I specifically analyzed 50 Power-5/FCS match-ups. In every instance that a power-5 team gave up 200 rushing yards to their FCS opponent, their defense ranked below 100th (in rush defense) by the end of the season.
Nevertheless, allowing less than 200 yards does not guarantee anything. There is no significant correlation with final rankings.
To summarize: Allow the Bearkats to accumulate 200 or more rushing yards, and there is a very strong chance Tech will not finish above 100th in rush defense. Keep the Bearkats below 200, and there is no correlation (good or bad).
3. A Turnover Margin of -2
In 2014, the Red Raiders had a -1.08 turnover margin per game, meaning Tech essentially gave up the ball 1 more time per game than their opponents. Turnovers have been a major focus of Texas Tech's new defensive coordinator, David Gibbs. Improvement in this area could pay major dividends by the end of the season.
In my examination of Power-5/FCS games, I found another interesting relationship. If the power-5 team ended the game with a turnover margin of -2 or greater, there was a significant chance they would finish the season averaging a turnover margin of -1 per game. Now, this correlation is not as strong as the first 2 we examined, but strong enough to take notice.
Just as before, there was no inverse relationship.
To summarize: If the Red Raiders finish Saturday's game with a -2 turnover margin, there is a significant chance they will finish the season with a turnover margin of -1 per game. Any turnover margin better than -2 has no correlation with season results (good or bad).
If 1 or all 3 of these stats are present, you might want to revise your projections for the 2015 season.
Keep in mind, there is usually an exception to any rule. For example, the Bearkats could rush the ball 100 times during Saturday's game. In that instance, I would expect them to go over 200 rushing yards.
I am optimistic about this game and this season. My final prediction for Saturday:
