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What is it about the underdog that makes them so darn compelling? Their ability to succeed against all odds and expectations gives us hope. Yet hope has its limits. In Division I basketball the limit is the national championship. For the past twelve years the national champion has had at least one five-star recruit. It doesn’t mean there aren’t sparks here and there, like Loyola-Chicago last year or VCU in 2011, but every Cinderella story hit its midnight chime sooner than hoped.
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Last year Texas Tech defied all expectations by their Elite Eight appearance. After rallying back against 14-seeded Stephen F. Austin, the Red Raiders outplayed (6) Florida and (2) Purdue before facing off against top seeded Villanova. All the attention started to shift. Texas Tech? Who even plays on their team? Villanova will hang 100 on them! The Cinderella story (in Red Raider fans’ minds) had finally blossomed. Yet it ended as soon as it had life. Despite keeping the Wildcats to well under their season average on offense, Coach Beard and company ended the season at the Elite Eight.
Now it’s 2019 and teams who had tournament experience last year are vying for their chance at a better finish. No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 Tennessee, No. 4 Virginia, No. 5 Gonzaga, No. 8 Texas Tech, No. 9 Virginia Tech, No. 10 Nevada and a host of others. What do these teams have in common? No five-star recruits. Look at how many of the top ten teams in the country are producing results without the highest caliber recruit. The ultimate question: could a program win an NCAA title without five-star recruits?
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In short (ignoring last year’s surprising knockouts), this may be the best year to break the twelve year drought. With teams like Michigan and Virginia, who remain undefeated, and Tennessee and Gonzaga, who have had substantial success, there are safe bets* in the tournament talk this year. You could also make a case for a myriad of teams who have outperformed expectations such as Texas Tech. The problem of speculation is you end up expecting a number 1 overall team to win the whole tournament, but then they get knocked out by a school like UMBC.
*there’s no such thing as a safe bet.
Below is the list of national champions of the past twelve years and their five-star ranked athlete(s).
(2018) Villanova
Jalen Brunson — No. 16 overall, 2015
Omari Spellman — No. 18, 2016
(2017) North Carolina
Isaiah hicks — No. 18, 2013
Joel Berry — No. 17, 2014
Theo Pinson — No. 10, 2015
Tony Bradley — No. 17, 2016
(2016) Villanova
Jalen Brunson - No. 22, 2015
(2015) Duke
Jahlil Okafor — No. 1, 2014
Tyus Jones — No. 7, 2014
Justise Winslow — No. 14, 2014
Rasheed Sulaimon — No. 13, 2012
(2014) UConn
DeAndre Daniels — No. 16, 2011
(2013) Louisville
Chane Behanan — No. 23, 2011
(2012) Kentucky
Terrence Jones — No. 8, 2010
Anthony Davis — No. 1, 2011
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist — No. 3, 2011
Marquis Teague — No. 7, 2011
Kyle Wiltjer — No. 20, 2011
(2011) UConn
Kemba Walker — No. 12, 2008
Alex Oriakhi — No. 19, 2009
(2010) Duke
Kyle Singler — No. 6, 2007
Nolan Smith — No. 21, 2007
Ryan Kelly — No. 15, 2009
(2009) North Carolina
Tyler Hansbrough — No. 8, 2005
Ty Lawson — No. 7, 2006
Wayne Ellington — No. 9, 2006
Ed Davis — No. 8, 2008
Tyler Zeller — No. 16, 2008
(2008) Kansas
Mario Chalmers — No. 13, 2005
Darrell Arthur — No. 13, 2006
(2007) Florida
Corey Brewer — No. 22, 2004