Texas Tech is going places

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Jeff Sagarin, a genius, thinks Texas Tech is the 10th best team in the country. Why not?

Dare we dream?

The year was 2011, and we had just defeated the, heh, mighty Kansas Jayhawks, and easily. Tech was averaging something like 50 points a game, and I (mistakenly) thought we were kind of good but then A WILD SEASON APPEARED and the wheels came off and something something 1-8 tire fire. October 1st precisely one year ago was the last chance Tech fans had to be wildly and irrationally optimistic about something we love, just like the last time my mother sincerely said I could become anything I wanted--even an astronaut! I did not. (Curse you, mother.)

Wild and irrational optimism is endearingly quintessential to fanaticism; indeed, uncritical but obviously motivated enthusiasm is fanatical. There are limits: On November 26, 2011, our game against Baylor could not result in a conference championship, much less a national one. Our crazy but hapless dreams had already been crushed many months prior. We were not astronauts, the rules had turned against us, although I hope the sun rises tomorrow, I cannot deny that it set yesterday, etc.

For Now, However

Jeff Sagarin is a cyborg contributor to the much-maligned BCS computer rankings, and therefore plays a non-trivial role in Tech football's actual fate, hopes aside. He also thinks we look like astronauts and are cool: Here is how this works:

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 92 would be favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 90. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 89 would be favored by 7 points over a HOME team having a rating of 79.

His "PURE POINTS. . . PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL. . . is the best single PREDICTOR of future games" and this is so because, unlike the BCS computers, PREDICTOR computer considers margin of victory (and only margin of victory) in tabulating its majestic results. And majestic they are: Texas Tech is the 10th best team in the country according to our computer overlord.

College Football 2012 through games of September 29 Saturday         the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS    | PREDICTOR  
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.53]                                               [  2.48]       [  2.69]
   1  Alabama              A  =  99.71    5   0   67.63(  58)    0   0  |    0   0  |   93.80    2 |  101.30    1
   2  Texas                A  =  91.71    4   0   70.55(  34)    0   0  |    1   0  |   89.84    8 |   91.87    3
   3  Florida              A  =  91.14    4   0   72.85(  20)    1   0  |    1   0  |   93.69    3 |   90.52    6
   4  South Carolina       A  =  90.92    5   0   68.48(  50)    0   0  |    1   0  |   90.17    7 |   90.84    4
   5  Oregon               A  =  90.85    5   0   62.42( 110)    0   0  |    0   0  |   89.77    9 |   90.84    5
   6  Texas A&M            A  =  89.96    3   1   67.87(  55)    0   1  |    0   1  |   80.92   28 |   92.79    2
   7  LSU                  A  =  89.22    5   0   60.98( 120)    0   0  |    0   0  |   94.37    1 |   88.29    8
   8  Florida State        A  =  89.10    5   0   57.71( 140)    0   0  |    1   0  |   89.69   10 |   88.78    7
   9  Notre Dame           A  =  88.25    4   0   73.13(  17)    0   0  |    0   0  |   91.01    6 |   87.59   11
  10  Georgia              A  =  87.94    5   0   65.18(  79)    0   0  |    1   0  |   92.85    4 |   87.03   12
College Football 2012 through games of September 29 Saturday         the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS    | PREDICTOR  
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.53]                                               [  2.48]       [  2.69]
  11  Texas Tech           A  =  87.88    4   0   60.71( 124)    0   0  |    0   0  |   87.05   13 |   87.82   10

(ELO Chess--ranking Texas Tech 13th--is the actual ranking used in the BCS, is cowardly, and considers only wins and losses. Scoff.)

I say these things because, as noted by Seth, the rest of October is a murderer's row involving home games against Oklahoma and West Virginia (if we score 80+ points we have a chance) epilogued by road wars at TCU, and Kansas State. Right now, Jeff genius Sagarin thinks we'd be favored over all those teams (at home). Put differently , Jeff Sagawesome thinks we're the favorite in every game on our schedule, minus Texas (EDIT: at home). Inevitably something horrible will happen, and we are thus running out of time to have wildly indefensible but vehemently defended beliefs about Texas Tech football. We rule, man.

What I am trying to communicate is that so what if Iowa State was an ugly win? Enjoy it as hard and strong and violently as you can, because in all likelihood we will not remain undefeated by season's end. For now, at least, we can still be astronauts.

Wreck 'em (4-0).

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