FanPost

What to expect on Saturday against ISU...

It seems like the review I did last week tended to be a little bit more tailored to what people are looking for. A couple of you guys have pointed out that I’ve done pretty good thus far with my score predictions. I hope I can keep the streak up this week…I feel little more bullish on things. Let’s take a look at what Iowa State likes to do and how their numbers break down.



*ISU’s offense is somewhat complicated because of injuries. Although, most indications point to Sam Richardson starting at QB for ISU.

ISU Offense

-Strangely enough…ISU is a 57% Pass, 43% Run team.
-They score 24 points/game.
-They pass at 5.9/attempt (not too good)
-They rush for 3.5/carry (not too good…if you take away losses though…it’s actually around 4.2/carry).
-They distribute the ball fairly evenly amongst the 1st tier receivers, each with over 32 catches, but less than 40. Their top to WR average around 13.5 yards/reception. This is actually a pretty good number.
  1. Sam Richardson has been the source to some scrutiny for Iowa State fans and I can see why I suppose. He’s a fairly good runner and averages around 5 yards/carry (with losses removed aka sacks). Yet he only passes for around 242 yards/game. To give you guys some perspective. Jake Waters has similar stats (2169 passing and 406 running), although he’s averaging 7 yards/touch (pass/rush). Richardson on the other hand (passing for 1938 and rushing for is closer to 5.7 yards/touch. In my opinion, he’s a poor mans Waters. Probably a better runner, but a far inferior passer. He isn’t super TO prone, but he does have 6 INTs for the season.
  2. Realistically, Richardson is ISU’s best rushing threat. Although, Aaron Wimberly totes the rock a good amount as well. He averages close to 50 yards/game, 4.4 yards/carry, and has 4 TDs. This is sort of eerie, but DeAndre Washington had an almost identical stat line last season. 4.2 yards/carry, 4 TDs, and around 40 yards/game. He’s a frail guy and has been banged up quite a lot. ISU also likes to involve Devodrick Neely, although he hasn’t produced notable numbers.
  3. Iowa State should actually be pretty bullish on their receivers. Quenton Bundrage (easily their #1 guy going into the year) tore his knew against North Dakota State. They’re led instead by an above average TE with could speed (Bibbs), a Freshman stud in the making (Lazard), and a transfer (Montgomery) who’s emerged as a game breaker recently. When healthy, Jarvis West is not someone to overlook, although he hasn’t really done too much since the Kansas State game.

Mark Mangino is the OC for Iowa State (a pretty big hire…pun intended) and a few have whispered he could be a candidate for HC if Paul Rhodes is let go. If you look at his Kansas teams from the past. They’re really a massive step up from what you see at ISU this year. For reference sake, I look back to the 2008 Kansas squad. A good team, ranked at one point, and you get a little glimpse of their identity.

-52% pass 48% run.
-8ish yards/attempt passing
-4 yards/carry rushing

Iowa State hasn’t exactly been in great spots this year and they haven’t been able to really run as much as they probably would prefer. Although, a good offense might’ve kept them in the games.


WHAT TO EXPECT AGAINST THE ISU OFFENSE

Honestly, this isn’t a particularly explosive bunch. They’ve got a below average running game and an average to below average passing attack. I think Sam Richardson extending plays with his feet could be cumbersome to our defense, although, expecting ISU to run for 300 yards seems really really unlikely. Their best output was against UT which was 179 yards rushing (which makes you really wonder what in the hell was going on there), otherwise they’ve topped out at 129 yards/rushing. I would expect ISU to try to establish the run but I think our defense should hold them to around 160 yards (which feels high)

ISU Defense
-They average giving up 495 yards/game
-250 yard passing/game and 244 yards rushing/game (FWIW…we give up 240/pass and 260/rushing)
-Realistically, our defense is one of the worst in the NCAA. There’s no doubt about it. Although, given what ISU has given up. They aren’t too much better.
-Teams convert 48% of 3rd downs against ISU.
-They’ve allowed 32 rushing TDs. We’ve allowed 31.
-Strangely they’ve only allowed 8 passing TDs this season though.
-They’ve forced 10 total TOs this season.
-Corey Morrissey leads ISU with 5 sacks.
-The other Sam Richardson has 3 INTs.

WHAT TO EXPECT AGAINST THE ISU DEFENSE

I mean, they gave up 510 yards rushing to OU. They allowed 34 points and lost to North Dakota State. Kansas put up 34 on them and won. I would expect Tech to go off for close to 600 yards. I could easily see us doing 250 yards rushing and 350-400 passing. Realistically, this bunch isn’t that good. They’ve allowed big points to big offenses.

ISU Special Teams
-Their kicker is 8/9 and perfect on Extra Points
-They have an average punter who does 40-42 yards/punt (thank goodness that one guy graduated).
-Jarvis West is a legit return man and he needs to be accounted for. ISU tends to thrive when they get at least one big special teams play. i.e. Kansas State.

KEYS TO THE GAME FOR ISU

-Establish some form of a running game against a leaking front 7 for Texas Tech.
-Exploit Texas Tech on the deep ball when it presents itself.
-Extend plays in the pocket and force the DBs for Tech to cover longer.
-Have at least 1 major special teams play.
-Convert TDs and not FGs.

KEYS TO THE GAME FOR TTU

-Run, run, run, run, run, run
-Play action, play action, play action
-Don’t turn the ball over.
-Keep your foot on the gas

PREDICTION TIME

I’m not going to lie. When I initially saw this game on the schedule, I was pretty nervous. Mid-November in Iowa…yikes. Even up until I looked at the stats that Iowa State had put up, I thought, man this is going to be a tough game. Upon further review, Iowa State is terrible. Their defense is as bad as the TTU defense. If I offered you up 2 defenses that equally suck. Then I said you can pair that defense with the Texas Tech Offense or the Iowa State Offense. 100/100 people would take our offense. I don’t see a scenario where we get out-scored by Iowa State in a shoot out. Give me Texas Tech, and I don’t think it will be that close. Iowa State looks as bad on paper as Kansas did. If we lose, I’ll be extremely curious to see why and/or how.

42-28 Texas Tech.



This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Viva The Matadors' writers or editors.

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