FanPost

Texas Tech 2012 / 2013 Bowl Possibilities and Projections As of 11/5

Bowl Positioning

Updated for the week of 11/4.

So despite the dread of the loss last Saturday, still a TON to play for, for this team and the program over all. 10-3 with a win against USC in prime-time at the Alamo and finish ranked 10-15. C'mon man that should still have your fandom juices flowing. Even 9-4 with a bowl win seems pretty shiny given last year.

That said, the conference title is for sure out. I guess there is some crazy scenario that has us winning out and Kstate losing out and OU losing two more and UT losing one more while beating Kstate... but we lost to all those teams... so yeah... we are for sure out. And we're likely for sure out of the Cotton now too. The absolute best we could hope for is the Alamo, but the loss to Central Texas U this weekend makes it much tougher, unless OU can make it as a BCS at large to Sugar which many of the prognosticators are now doing. As the pecking order for the top 3 bowls is pretty clear. KSU, OU, UT with OSU, Tech, TCU, and WVU playing for 4th.

Looking at the bowl payouts the Wild Wings bowl is actually better than Alamo even if less desirable for time, location, fan travel, exposure and match-up. I think we have to win out to get that bid and cross our fingers that we can still pull the Alamo. But going undefeated is 50/50 at best. We would need all the walking wounded back and have no more injuries and play at our highest level for all three, because Kansas is not going to roll over. They have no disappointment to get over, they are already playing for next year.

If we lose one more then Alamo is out and it would likely be Holiday and outside shot at BWW, which is a significant payout loss, but the match-up would actually be better than Wild Wings. If we lose two more then it's Meineke which is good for location, venue, date and time. In fact the Big 12 should flip the Meineke game to Tempe and move the BWW game to Houston permanently. I would think the Big 10 would be on board with that too. That aside, I have a feeling that the fan base would be hard stretched to strongly support us in the Meineke this year, but who knows. If we lose three more... well I think most of us would be more worried about who the coach would be next year than worry about a bowl.

But I guess the Heart of Dallas or Independence Bowl would a good place for new perspective coaches to watch the team, if not already in place. Which may actually make those games more interesting than a 7-5 team in the Meineke against a 6 loss Big 10 school. But I can't nor should anyone go there and root for a loss to Kansas. We'll win that one and how we finish against Baylor will be predicated on how we do against OSU. If we lose, we'll be hard pressed to bring any mojo to the Baylor game. Plus Baylor will be playing hard to secure a bowl and a win against an in state team. Baylor will lose the next two, but they have Tech and OSU their final two and can still get to 6 wins. If we win against OSU, then the Baylor game will actually mean a lot to Tech as a 10 win and top 15 season will still be possible.

Below I updated the bowl projections from the media outlets and the % chance for the bowls if season ended today.

Here is a Big 12 Affiliated Bowl Grid. I used several sources to build and added the last column with my best guess for acceptable losses. Sources (NCAA, College Football Poll, Phil Steele, Wikipedia). The last column is all in my own opinion.

2012 Big 12 Bowl Schedule

GAME
SITE
PER TEAM PAY-OUT

DATE
TIME (est)
TV

PRIMARY
CHOICES

2012 Acceptable Loss Range - Chance of TTU invite if season ended 11/5 & likely pecking order

BCS Championship/Bowl Link
Miami, FL
$22-24 Million

Mon. 1/7/13
8:30pm
ESPN

BCS #1
vs.
BCS #2

0-1 / 0% / KSU

Fiesta / Bowl Link
Glendale, AZ
$18,000,000

Fri. 1/3/13
8:30pm
ESPN

BCS
vs.
BCS (Big 12 tie-in)

0-2 / 0% / KSU / OU

Cotton / Bowl Link
Arlington, TX
$3,625,000

Fri. 1/4/13
8:00pm
Fox

Big 12 #2
vs.
^-SEC #3 or #4

1-3 / 0% / OU / UT

Alamo / Bowl Link
San Antonio, TX
$3,175,000

Sat. 12/29/12
6:45pm
ESPN

Big 12 #3
vs.
PAC-12 #2

2-4 / 20% / UT / OSU / TTU

Buffalo Wild Wings/Bowl Link
Tempe, AZ
$3,325,000

Sat. 12/29/12
10:15pm
ESPN

Big 12 #4
vs.
Big 10 #4

3-4 / 70% / OSU / TTU / TCU / WVU

Holiday / Bowl Link
San Diego, CA
$2,075,000

Thur. 12/27/12
9:45 pm
ESPN

Big 12 #5
vs.
PAC-12 #3

4-5 / 10% / OSU / TTU / TCU / WVU

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas /Bowl Link
Houston, TX
$1,700,000

Fri. 12/28/12
9:00pm
ESPN

Big 12 #6
vs.
Big 10 #6

4-6 / 0% / OSU / TTU / TCU / WVU

Pinstripe / Bowl Link
Bronx, NY
$1,800,000

Fri. 12/29/12
3:15pm
ESPN

Big 12 #7
vs.
Big East #4

5-6 / 0% / TCU / WVU/ ISU /BU

Heart of Dallas /Bowl Link
Dallas, TX
$1,100,000

Tue. 1/1/13
12:00pm
ESPN-U

Big 12 #8
vs.
Big 10 #7

5-6 / 0% / TCU / WVU/ ISU /BU

Independence /Bowl Link
Shreveport, LA
$1,150,000

Fri. 12/28/12
2:00pm
ESPN

ACC #7*
vs.
SEC #10

6 / 0% / TCU / WVU/ ISU /BU

New Orleans / Bowl Link

New Orleans, LA
$500,000

Fri. 12/22/12
12:00pm
ESPN

CUSA #6*
vs.
Sun Belt #1

6 / 0% / TCU / WVU/ ISU /BU

Texas Tech Bowl Projections as of 11/5

Source

Bowl

Matchup

CBS

Holiday

UCLA

College Football News

Holiday

UCLA

ESPN

Alamo / BWW

USC / Mich St

Phil Steele

Buffalo Wild Wings

Michigan St

Sports Illustrated

Alamo

UCLA

Sporting News

Holiday

USC

USA Today

Meineke

Iowa

^ - Outback/Cotton Bowl - The Cotton Bowl has the first preference of teams from the SEC Western Division and the Outback Bowl has first preference of teams from the SEC Eastern Division. The Cotton or Outback Bowl can select teams outside of its divisional preference, but must not select them before the opposite bowl selects from its divisional preference.* May take an at large team if not enough teams from affiliated conferences qualify

**Heart of Dallas Big 12 affiliation ends after 2012 season completed.

BCS Selection Order: The order of selection for this year's BCS games is Fiesta, Sugar, Orange. However, the bowls that lose host conference champions to the BCS title game get to replace those teams before other selections are made. BCS Selection Procedures.

Notre Dame is eligible for all bowls in which the Big East has a commitment, as well as the BCS. It also serves as the backup for the Big 12 in the Pinstripe Bowl.

PAYOUTS: Amounts shown do not necessarily reflect what each school receives. The conferences have different methods by which bowl money is divided among its membership. Some bowl agreements call for higher payouts to one conference than the other, depending on such factors as which is the "host" conference. Most of the above payouts are based on actual figures from the Football Bowl Association for the 2010-2011 season, while others are published estimates of anticipated payouts for the current year

Bowl-ineligible: Ohio State, Penn State and North Carolina.

<em>This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Viva The Matadors' writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Viva The Matadors' writers or editors.</em>

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